The sports books didn’t fare very well this Wrestlemania and were only able to accurately project 7 out of 13 matches. 6 upsets happened and some of these were serious upsets. Charlotte Flair ending the undefeated streak of Asuka and both AJ Styles and Brock Lesnar retaining as underdogs were shocking upsets. Enjoy a breakdown of the how the odds settled in every match.

At Least The Oddsmakers Didn’t Get Everything Wrong

Matt Hardy wins the Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal – Matt Hardy was slightly favored to win and eventually accurate line move suggests there had been an inside leak with this particular match. At one point there were other participants that had the most favorable odds including Elias, who ended up in a segment with John Cena. Big Cass also had favorable odds but ended up not appearing at all.

Cedric Alexander defeats Mustafa Ali in the Tournament Finals for the vacant Cruiserweight Championship – Alexander had convincing odds prior to this match and they ended up being spot on for this match. This match’s outcome wasn’t particularly predictable so an inside leak placing bets on this match is very likely.

Seth Rollins defeats The Miz and Finn Balor to become the Intercontinental Champion – Seth Rollins ended up being favored right before this match, although earlier odds had Finn Balor as the slight favorite. Seems like an inside leak based on the line shift coupled with it’s accuracy as a predictor.

Ronda Rousey and Kurt Angle defeated Stephanie McMahon and Triple H by submission when Rousey tapped out Stephanie with armbar – This match always favored Rousey and Angle and those odds moved in their favor as we grew closer to the bout itself. Easily predictable attraction match. No leaks needed to call this one.

The Bludgeon Brothers defeated The New Day and the Usos to win the Smackdown Tag Team Championships – Harper and Rowan were favored to win this, but not by much. Based on the Bludgeons recent dominance, the odds favored them and were accurate. It would be very hard to believe this match result leaked or else the winners would have had longer odds.

The Undertaker defeated John Cena with a tombstone – The Undertaker was favored all along to win this, however his odds shortened leading into this, going against sensibilities that the match outcome leaked.

Nia Jax defeated Alexa Bliss with a second rope Samoan Drop to win the Raw Women’s Championship – Jax was favored all along and the sports book were able to call this one perfectly.

Braun Strowman and Nicolas defeated Cesaro and Sheamus to win the Raw Tag Team Championship after Strowman hit a running power slam on Cesaro – It’s obvious Braun is at Wrestlemania to look strong. Even though we never knew who would tag with Strowman, he was always favored to win this by the sports books.

Upsets Galore – This is What Happens When Kayfabe is Respected

Naomi wins the Wrestlemania Women’s Battle Royal – No evidence of inside leaks in this one. Naomi had odds of +1250 for this match and ending up winning. Sasha Banks, Becky Lynch and Bayley all had competitive odds and lost. A $100 bet on Naomi would have won $1250, so this was probably a case of the finish not being decided until right before the event.

Charlotte Flair defeats Asuka to retain her Smackdown Women’s Championship – Asuka was always heavily favored to win this match and keep her undefeated streak intact. While Charlotte was able to win, causing an upset, the nature in which the odds moved in Flair’s direction in the hours approaching the match suggests an inside leak influencing last minute bets being booked. There was no logical reason to back Charlotte without inside information.

Jinder Mahal defeated Randy Orton, Rusev and Bobby Roode to win the United States Championship – Rusev ended up being favored right before this match, and was earlier in a dead heat with the champion, Orton. Mahal was eventually a +3300 underdog, so this was an enormous upset. Jinder had a history of defying the betting odds in 2017 and appears to continuing this trend in 2018.

 

Daniel Bryan and Shane McMahon defeated Kevin Owens and Sami Zayn when Bryan was able to submit Zayn with a Yes Lock – While Bryan and Shane were originally favored here, the odds flipped in favor of Zayn and Owens before the match. Bryan and Shane winning was a sports book upset.

AJ Styles defeated Shinsuke Nakamura with a Styles Clash to retain the WWE Championship – This was a shocking upset and Nakamura was convincingly favored all along. The outcome was definitely protected.

Brock Lesnar defeated Roman Reigns with an F5 to retain the WWE Universal Championship – Another huge upset, although the odds moved aggressively towards Lesnar as we grew closer to the match. Brock moved to a marginal underdog from a longshot and ended up retaining. An inside leak is probable for the lines to move in this manner.

 

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