Who is the ‘Smart Money” Favoring for WWE Payback Tonight?
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The smart odds appear to be in for WWE Payback tonight. These are very long odds considering we didn’t see lines like this for both Fastlane and Wrestlemania. With odds like this the most likely reason would be insider leaks, however with more people than ever now gambling on WWE this may just be result of who gamblers are backing heavily. Either way, there is always a chance of upsets based on bad information or last minute changes to finishes.
The Hardy Boyz and Bray Wyatt are the most favored out of anyone else on the card. Both Wyatt and the Raw Tag Team Champions have odds of -13500 and this is a 99.01% probability in both matches. While the Hardyz were always heavily favored all along, The early markets had Randy Orton as a heavy favorite to defeat Bray Wyatt. This was puzzling for several reasons. The first being that Randy Orton’s WWE Championship is not on the line. Next is the fact that this is a “House of Horrors” match and while we don’t know exactly what this match is, it is Bray Wyatt’s creation and specialty match so he should probably win this. Finally, due to the Superstar ShakeUp, Bray Wyatt is on the Raw brand. Wyatt winning what is now and interbrand match makes the most sense.
In the case of the Hardyz, these lines could suggest just how serious WWE is about a major run for the Hardyz. Historical booking patterns would usually suggest that those getting beat on TV leading up to PPV end up winning at the PPV. The Hardyz beat their opponents, Cesaro and Shaemus, in singles matches on Raw the past two weeks and yet are graded as underdogs. This is a very interesting anomaly.
As usual, the women’s division are the most volatile in terms of line moves. After being very close, Bayley was just yesterday favored at -4500 but now they’ve flipped completely as it is now Alexa Bliss favored at the same -4500 odds. As always, this does not mean Bliss wins the Raw Women’s Championship, as a DQ or Count Out win is always possible.
Braun Strowman has been favored all along to beat Roman Reigns and now has odds of -5960. The attack on Reigns really raised Strowman’s stock and fans are accepting him as a big deal and these odds are no surprise. Another talent that has been favored from the beginning and held on to it is Seth Rollins favored at -7500 to beat Samoa Joe. This should come as a shock, considering the major plans WWE seems to have for Joe, however good storytelling can turn key losses into a way to further build a character.
Kevin Owen had been heavily favored to retain the United States Championship in a Wrestlemania rematch against Chris Jericho. Now Jericho is favored at -9250 which is also puzzling because Y2J goes on tour with Fozzy very soon. Neville is favored to retain against Austin Aries at -9250.
On the preshow, Enzo Amore and Big Cass are favored to defeat Gallows and Anderson with odds of -7500. The odds can still change leading up to show as bets are being taken right up until the bell rings for each match. Below are the full odds, a minus sign indicates the favorites and the plus symbol for the underdogs. The number after is how favored or unfavored particular competitors are. These odds all fall under “end of broadcast ruling” or “end of preshow ruling” in the case of the preshow tag match. This is to account for when an initial finish is overruled to account for any “Dusty Finish”.
Roman Reigns -1990 vs Braun Strowman -5960
WWE United States Championship
Kevin Owens(c) +2750 vs Chris Jericho -9250
WWE Women’s Championship
Bayley(c) +1500 vs Alexa Bliss -4500
WWE Tag Team Championship
The Hardy Boyz -13500 vs Cesaro and Sheamus +3500
WWE Cruiserweight Championship
Neville -9250 vs Austin Aries +2750
House of Horrors Match
Randy Orton +3500 vs Bray Wyatt -13500
Seth Rollins -7500 vs Samoa Joe +2500
Enzo Amore and Big Cass -7500 vs Luke Gallows and Karl Anderson +2500